Potential risks of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil: a modeling study

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dc.contributorLab. Parasitologiapt_BR
dc.contributor.authorAguiar, Breno S.pt_BR
dc.contributor.authorLorenz, Camilapt_BR
dc.contributor.authorVirginio, Fláviapt_BR
dc.contributor.authorSuesdek, Lincolnpt_BR
dc.contributor.authorChiaravalloti-Neto, Franciscopt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2020-07-09T21:19:59Z-
dc.date.available2020-07-09T21:19:59Z-
dc.date.issued2018pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationAguiar BS., Lorenz C, Virginio F, Suesdek L, Chiaravalloti-Neto F. Potential risks of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil: a modeling study. Int. J. Infect. Dis.. 2018 May;70:20-9. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2018.02.007.pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.butantan.gov.br/handle/butantan/2462-
dc.description.abstractObjectives: While Brazil has witnessed an unprecedented Zika (ZIK) epidemic, chikungunya (CHIK) has also recently come into prominence as a threat in the Americas. The aim of this study was to identify the regions with increased probabilities of ZIK and CHIK occurrence, based on environmental and social conditions. Methods: A statistical Maxent model was used to assess the potential spatial risk of ZIK and CHIK dissemination; this considered the number of probable autochthonous ZIK and CHIK cases in 2015 and 2016, along with environmental variables and social indicators. Results: Land use was the most significant variable that best defined the distribution of ZIK and CHIK. Of the social variables, garbage destination, type of sanitary installation, and pipe-borne water were the most significant. An estimated 65 million people in Brazil live in areas at high risk of ZIK and 75 million people in areas at high risk of CHIK. The southeast and northeast regions of Brazil presented the largest areas of high risk for both ZIK and CHIK. Conclusions: Many areas across the Brazilian territory are exposed to ZIK or CHIK infection risks, which are related mainly to land use. The study findings offer valuable information to support time-sensitive public health decision-making at the local and national levels.pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)pt_BR
dc.format.extentp. 20-29pt_BR
dc.language.isoEnglishpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Infectious Diseasespt_BR
dc.rightsOpen Accesspt_BR
dc.titlePotential risks of Zika and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil: a modeling studypt_BR
dc.typeArticlept_BR
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.ijid.2018.02.007pt_BR
dc.identifier.urlhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2018.02.007pt_BR
dc.contributor.externalUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)¦¦Brasilpt_BR
dc.identifier.citationvolume70pt_BR
dc.subject.keywordEpidemicpt_BR
dc.subject.keywordMicrocephalypt_BR
dc.subject.keywordMaxentpt_BR
dc.subject.keywordSocio-environmental conditionspt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofabbreviatedInt J Infect Dispt_BR
dc.identifier.citationabntv. 70, p. 20-29, maio 2018pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationvancouver2018 May;70:20-9pt_BR
dc.contributor.butantanLorenz, Camila|:Aluno|:Lab. Parasitologia|:pt_BR
dc.contributor.butantanVirginio, Flávia|:Aluno|:Lab. Parasitologia|:pt_BR
dc.contributor.butantanSuesdek, Lincoln|:Pesquisador|:Lab. Parasitologia|:pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)¦¦311805/2014-0pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)¦¦23038.005.274/2011-24pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanCoordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)¦¦1275/2011pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)¦¦2014/27172-9pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)¦¦2013/05521-9pt_BR
dc.identifier.bvsccBR78.1pt_BR
dc.identifier.bvsdbIBProdpt_BR
dc.description.dbindexedYespt_BR
item.openairetypeArticle-
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item.languageiso639-1English-
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