Estimating the effects of reopening schools on the course of the epidemic of COVID-19

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dc.contributor.authorMassad, Eduardopt_BR
dc.contributor.authorAmaku, Marcospt_BR
dc.contributor.authorCovas, Dimas Tadeupt_BR
dc.contributor.authorLopez, Luis Fernandespt_BR
dc.contributor.authorCoutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerrapt_BR
dc.identifier.citationMassad E, Amaku M, Covas DT, Lopez LF, Coutinho FAB. Estimating the effects of reopening schools on the course of the epidemic of COVID-19. Epidemiol Infect. 2021 Apr;149:e86. doi:10.1017/S0950268821000686.pt_BR
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we present a method do estimate the risk of reopening schools illustrated with the case of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The model showed that, although no death of children would result from the reopening of the schools in the three cities analyzed, the risk of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases and secondary cases among teacher, school staff and relatives of the children is not negligible. Although the epidemic hit different regions with different intensity, our model shows that, for regions where the incidence profile is similar to the cities analysed, the risk of reopening schools is still too high. This in spite of the fact that incidence in these cities were declining in the period of time considered. Therefore, although we cannot extend the result for the entire country, the overall conclusion is valid for regions with declining incidence and it is even more valid for regions where incidence is increasing. We assumed a very conservative level of infection transmissibility of children of just 10% as that of adults. In spite of this very low level of transmissibility assumed, the number of secondary cases caused by infected children among teachers, school staff a relatives varied from 2 to 85. It is therefore too soon to have any degree of confidence that reopening school before the advent of a vaccine is the right decision to take. The purpose of our model and simulations is to provide a method to estimate the risk of schools reopening, although we are sure it could be applied as a guide to public health strategies.pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programmept_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipFundação Butantanpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofEpidemiology and Infectionpt_BR
dc.rightsOpen Accesspt_BR
dc.titleEstimating the effects of reopening schools on the course of the epidemic of COVID-19pt_BR
dc.contributor.externalUniversidade de São Paulo (USP)pt_BR
dc.contributor.externalFundação Getulio Vargas (FGV)pt_BR
dc.subject.keywordSchool childrenpt_BR
dc.subject.keywordMathematical Modellingpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofabbreviatedEpidemiol Infectpt_BR
dc.identifier.citationabntv. 149, e86, abr. 2021pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationvancouver2021 Apr;149:e86pt_BR
dc.contributor.butantanCovas, Dimas Tadeu|:Diretorpt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanEuropean Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme¦¦734584pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)¦¦pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)¦¦pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanFundação Butantan¦¦pt_BR
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