Brazil’s COVID-19 epicenter in Manaus: how much of the population has already been exposed and are vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2?


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Article
Language
English
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Abstract
Is Brazil’s COVID-19 epicenter really approaching herd immunity? A recent study estimated that in October 2020 three-quarters of the population of Manaus (the capital of the largest state in the Brazilian Amazon) had contact with SARS-CoV-2. We show that 46% of the Manaus population having had contact with SARS-CoV-2 at that time is a more plausible estimate, and that Amazonia is still far from herd immunity. The second wave of COVID-19 is now evident in Manaus. We predict that the pandemic of COVID-19 will continue throughout 2021, given the duration of naturally acquired immunity of only 240 days and the slow pace of vaccination. Manaus has a large percentage of the population that is susceptible (35 to 45% as of May 17, 2021). Against this backdrop, measures to restrict urban mobility and social isolation are still necessary, such as the closure of schools and universities, since the resumption of these activities in 2020 due to the low attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 was the main trigger for the second wave in Manaus.
Reference
Ferrante L, Duczmal LH, Steinmetz WA, Almeida ACL, Leão J, Vassao RC, et al. Brazil’s COVID-19 epicenter in Manaus: how much of the population has already been exposed and are vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2?. J. Racial. Ethn. Health Disparities. 2021 Sept;in press. doi:10.1007/s40615-021-01148-8.
Link to cite this reference
https://repositorio.butantan.gov.br/handle/butantan/3993
Issue Date
2021


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