Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential invasion of the non-native millipede Oxidus gracilis (C. L. Koch, 1847) (Polydesmida: Paradoxosomatidae) in Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Abstract

The millipede Oxidus gracilis (C. L. Koch, 1847) is a cosmopolitan introduced species largely recorded in the southeast region of Brazil. The species is considered an agricultural pest with records in poly- or monocultures, and its influence on native communities of plants and invertebrates is still unknown in Brazil. From this perspective, a maximum entropy model was used to explore the predicted distribution of O. gracilis in Brazil. The results showed a highly suitable area in Atlantic Forest (AUC = 0.949 ± 0.02). Considering percent contribution, annual mean temperature (= 54.9) was the main variable which has influenced the modeling. The potentially suitable areas recovered in Atlantic Forest suggest that attention should be given to its possible invasion and the potential damage of O. gracilis to natural communities.