Spatiotemporal bayesian modelling of scorpionism and its risk factors in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

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dc.contributorCentro Bioindustrialpt_BR
dc.contributor.authorChiaravalloti-Neto, Franciscopt_BR
dc.contributor.authorLorenz, Camilapt_BR
dc.contributor.authorLacerda, Alec Brianpt_BR
dc.contributor.authorde Azevedo, Thiago Salomãopt_BR
dc.contributor.authorCandido, Denise Mariapt_BR
dc.contributor.authorEloy, Luciano Josépt_BR
dc.contributor.authorFan, Hui Wenpt_BR
dc.contributor.authorBlangiardo, Martapt_BR
dc.contributor.authorPirani, Monicapt_BR
dc.identifier.citationChiaravalloti-Neto F, Lorenz C, Lacerda AB, de Azevedo TS, Candido DM, Eloy LJ, et al. Spatiotemporal bayesian modelling of scorpionism and its risk factors in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2023 Jun; 17(6):e0011435. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0011435.pt_BR
dc.description.abstractBackground Scorpion stings in Brazil represent a major public health problem due to their incidence and their potential ability to lead to severe and often fatal clinical outcomes. A better understanding of scorpionism determinants is essential for a precise comprehension of accident dynamics and to guide public policy. Our study is the first to model the spatio-temporal variability of scorpionism across municipalities in São Paulo (SP) and to investigate its relationship with demographic, socioeconomic, environmental, and climatic variables. Methodology This ecological study analyzed secondary data on scorpion envenomation in SP from 2008 to 2021, using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) to perform Bayesian inference for detection of areas and periods with the most suitable conditions for scorpionism. Principal findings From the spring of 2008 to 2021, the relative risk (RR) increased eight times in SP, from 0.47 (95%CI 0.43–0.51) to 3.57 (95%CI 3.36–3.78), although there has been an apparent stabilization since 2019. The western, northern, and northwestern parts of SP showed higher risks; overall, there was a 13% decrease in scorpionism during winters. Among the covariates considered, an increase of one standard deviation in the Gini index, which captures income inequality, was associated with a 11% increase in scorpion envenomation. Maximum temperatures were also associated with scorpionism, with risks doubling for temperatures above 36°C. Relative humidity displayed a nonlinear association, with a 50% increase in risk for 30–32% humidity and reached a minimum of 0.63 RR for 75–76% humidity. Conclusions Higher temperatures, lower humidity, and social inequalities were associated with a higher risk of scorpionism in SP municipalities. By capturing local and temporal relationships across space and time, authorities can design more effective strategies that adhere to local and temporal considerations.pt_BR
dc.description.sponsorshipWellcome Trustpt_BR
dc.description.sponsorship(MRC) Medical Research Councilpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofPlos Neglected Tropical Diseasespt_BR
dc.rightsOpen accesspt_BR
dc.titleSpatiotemporal bayesian modelling of scorpionism and its risk factors in the state of São Paulo, Brazilpt_BR
dc.rights.licenseCC BYpt_BR
dc.contributor.external(USP) Universidade de São Paulopt_BR
dc.contributor.externalSecretaria de Saúde do Município de Santa Bárbara d'Oestept_BR
dc.contributor.external(CVE) Centro de Vigilância Epidemiológica "Prof. Alexandre Vranjac"pt_BR
dc.contributor.externalImperial College Londonpt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofabbreviatedPLoS Negl Trop Dispt_BR
dc.identifier.citationabntv. 17, n. 6, e0011435, jun. 2023pt_BR
dc.identifier.citationvancouver2023 Jun; 17(6):e0011435pt_BR
dc.contributor.butantanCandido, Denise Maria|:Outros|:Centro Bioindustrial|:pt_BR
dc.contributor.butantanFan, Hui Wen|:Outros|:Centro Bioindustrial|:pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantanWellcome Trust¦¦217362_Z_19_Zpt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantan(MRC) Medical Research Council¦¦MR/S019669/1pt_BR
dc.sponsorship.butantan(MRC) Medical Research Council¦¦2019–2024pt_BR
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